Valve’s Revealed Case Opening Knife Opening Odds
Valve, the game developers of CS2, have released the exact odds of opening cases. Refer to the table below:
Chances of Opening
Mil-Spec (Blue Skin)
Restricted (Purple Skin)
Classified (Pink Skin)
Covert (Red Skin)
Exceedingly Rare (Yellow/Knife Skin)
As shown in the table, the official numbers show that the odds of unboxing an Exceedingly Rare Special Item, or in other words, a knife, is a meager 0.0255%. If you do the math, you will statistically get a knife once every 400 cases.
Are These Odds of Getting a Knife in CS2 Favorable?
The simple answer is no; getting a knife in CS2 is super unlikely. Like, the odds of getting a knife from CS2 loot boxes is 1 in 400. Opening 400 cases will cost you $1000 from case keys alone. And if you do unbox a knife, you might get one of the worst knife skins that sell for less than $150 on the Steam Community Market. That’ll leave you down $850 and sad.
However, if you are lucky, you might pull an exceedingly rare knife skin, like popular streamer DrDisrespect did. He unboxed an M9 Bayonet Doppler Sapphire for his first-ever knife, worth over $15,000 and being one of the best M9 Bayonet skins, as well as the most expensive CS2 items!
If you’re looking for a case-opening experience with better odds, we recommend using CS2 case opening websites that will give you much better odds of unboxing a knife.